http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100530_brief_consequences_flotilla_attack
Brief: Consequences Of The Flotilla Attack
May 31, 2010 | 0443 GMT
At least 10 activists have been killed and dozens have been injured as Israeli naval forces overtook an aid flotilla headed for the Gaza Strip, Reuters reported, citing Israeli television. It remains unclear whether the shooting took place by the commandos once they were aboard or whether the flotilla was fired upon when the three Israeli vessels made contact with the flotilla about 123 kilometers (76.4 miles) off the Gaza coast. According to Israeli media citing organizers of the aid convoy, the Israel Defense Forces contacted the flotilla via radio and informed them that the Gaza Strip is a closed military zone. The flotilla was given a choice between being escorted by the Israeli navy to the port in Ashdod, where the supplies could be unloaded and distributed by Israel, or being overtaken by Israeli commandos. The latter scenario appears to have played out in the early morning, beginning around 4:00 a.m. local time but continuing through daybreak, providing more media exposure to the incident. At its core, the flotilla incident is an attempt by both sides -- the Turkish activists aboard the flotilla and Israel -- to shape external perceptions of Israel's blockade on Gaza. The Turkish interest is in highlighting the plight of Palestinians at the hands of Israel, providing Ankara with a useful lever in the region to claim the mantle of the strongest defender of the Palestinians in Gaza (a reputation Iran has been attempting to build). The Israeli interest is in preventing a loss of control over Gaza and portraying the flotilla supporters as supporters of terrorist elements based in Gaza. The violence that has taken place, however, will likely place Israel at a disadvantage in this contest. Turkish activists may decide to decide to send more ships, or provide the ships with Turkish military escorts in the future, which will bear close watching to see how the diplomatic community, particularly in the United States and Europe, chooses to respond to the incident.
Leave a comment