http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100326_south_korea_sinking_chon
The South Korean corvette Chon An, which sank off the coast of Baekryeongdo Island in the Yellow Sea March 26, may have been hit and penetrated by some kind of explosive device below the water line. This suggests a naval mine or torpedo rather an anti-ship missile, coastal artillery or friendly fire. It also could have been a catastrophic internal mishap. In any case, South Korea has yet to point any fingers.
Analysis
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Though details -- especially the sequence of events -- remain unclear, multiple reports citing officials have suggested that the South Korean corvette Chon An (772), which sank off the coast of Baekryeongdo island in the Yellow Sea late on March 26, was holed below the waterline before sinking. If this ultimately proves to be the case, it is an important clue to the cause of the Chon An's demise. In any event, based on the speed with which the ship appears to have sunk, the damage to the stern was likely severe and catastrophic.
North Korea has no shortage of options for striking South Korean naval vessels along the northern limit line. The north has long been prepared to repel any sort of amphibious landing and has focused much of its attention on these hotly contested waters (with major incidents in 1999, 2002 and 2009). Pyongyang has surveillance radars deployed along its coast that are linked with coastal defense artillery and anti-ship missile batteries. Though the exact location of the incident off the coast of Baekryeongdo Island remains unclear, the Chon An appears to have been within range of at least some of these systems. In addition, there have been reports of North Korean engineers attempting to modify the indigenously built KN-01 anti-ship missile to be air-launched (probably from the Chinese-built H-5 bomber).
Korea Map
But anti-ship missiles and coastal artillery rounds would be unlikely to penetrate a ship below the waterline. And suggestions that the Chon An may have been hit by friendly fire would probably not fit the scenario, either, since the Sok Cho (which was accompanying the Chon An) is fitted with 76mm naval guns that would have had to have ignited a fuel bunker or magazine to create a major hole below the surface.
With the exception of a catastrophic internal mishap -- unnamed South Korean officials have suggested explosives may have gone off on board -- this leaves a torpedo or a naval mine as the most likely cause of the damage. The torpedo has been the most widely discussed in media reports, although initial coverage of breaking events such as Chon An sinking are often flawed or erroneous. Nevertheless, North Korea has nearly 200 torpedo boats and numerous small submarines that could have taken advantage of the cluttered littoral environment to approach and fire upon the Chon An (whether it would have been done at the direction of Pyongyang or by a rogue naval commander is another question entirely). Though many of North Korea's torpedoes are World War II vintage, it has acquired some more modern models and is known to manufacture its own. If a torpedo boat -- or especially a submarine -- surprised the Chon An, technological sophistication would not have been required.
But the North Korean navy also places considerable emphasis on mine warfare. Some reports have placed an unknown object in the water near the Chon An before the explosion, though a floating mine would hole her at, not below, the waterline. Nevertheless, though the bulk of the North Korea's mine arsenal is fairly archaic, like its torpedo arsenal, it also has more advanced mines and is known to manufacture modified Soviet designs domestically. Though a free-floating mine released long ago could conceivably strike a South Korean naval vessel, a catastrophic hole at the stern beneath the water line could indicate a more modern and sophisticated mine that would have been emplaced and activated more recently, possibly by a submarine.
At this point in the drama, despite frantic emergency Cabinet meetings, even the South Korean government has yet to definitively point a finger at the north. "For now," said President Lee Myung-bak's spokeswoman, "it is not certain whether North Korea is related." Local media have also been quoting unnamed "senior" government officials claiming that the sinking does not appear to be due to hostile action from the north. Meanwhile, rescue efforts -- including some eight naval and coast guard vessels supported by helicopters -- have so far rescued 58 of the ship's complement of 104.
Ultimately, the cause of the Chon An's sinking may never be known. These incidents do happen from time to time, and vitriolic rhetoric -- and ambiguity -- usually follows. But STRATFOR will continue to monitor the situation closely for more far-reaching implications.
