Russia: A Rapprochement With Poland

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090831_russia_rapprochement_poland

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Aug. 31 sent a letter to the Polish people in which he denounced the World War II era Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty. The Polish population, who views the pact as a symbol of Russo-German aggression, likely sees Putin's condemnation as a way to reconcile with Russia. However, it will be difficult for Warsaw to choose between accepting an accord with its traditional enemy or resuming its long-standing policy of aggression toward Moscow with the United States still undecided on the ballistic missile defense system placement in Poland.

Analysis

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Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin addressed the Polish public ahead of his visit to Gdansk on Sept. 1 in an editorial published on Aug. 31 titled "Letter to Poles" in the Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza. In his article, Putin condemned the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, a nonaggression treaty between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union that also included a secret provision for division of Poland between Berlin and Moscow signed on Aug. 23, 1939. Putin, along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are guests of honor at the Sept. 1 ceremony in Gdansk that will mark Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland 70 years ago.

Putin's very public denunciation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty is a significant gesture of friendship toward Warsaw, where the treaty is seen as the quintessential symbol of Russo-German designs on Poland. Putin may also be sending a message to Berlin that the recently reinvigorated friendship between Russia and Germany better not end like the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, which Hitler broke when he invaded the Soviet Union in 1941.