http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081215_mexico_security_memo_dec_15_2008
Yet Another Week of Drug Violence
Drug-related violence in Mexico this past week occurred in all the usual hotspots. For instance, the second-highest-ranking representative of the federal attorney general's office in Chihuahua state died after being shot more than 40 times while stopped at a red light in the border city of Ciudad Juarez. In Playas de Rosarito, Baja California state, a deputy police commander was gunned down while driving an official police vehicle. And in Durango state, a group of armed men shot and killed six men at a celebration near the town of San Dimas.
A noteworthy series of incidents also took place in Sinaloa state this past week. Ten people died during a firefight between two rival gangs near the town of Rosario, along the mountainous border with Durango state. Shortly afterward, unidentified gunmen opened fire on a hospital in Mazatlan, where at least one victim of the engagement was being treated. In a separate incident in the state capital of Culiacan, a series of gunbattles between two criminal groups left five people dead and six wounded over a few hours. Finally, on the outskirts of the northern town of Mocorito, soldiers discovered a remote airstrip as well as large amounts of marijuana, aviation fuel and other equipment.
While still notable, such incidents are far from unusual in Sinaloa. In fact, the state has been perhaps the most consistently violent area of the country during the past two years of the cartel war. This is due to a number of factors, including the variety of criminal groups operating there, the wide range of drug-related criminal activity, and Sinaloa's mountainous border with Chihuahua and Durango states, two other relatively lawless areas. In addition, the lack of important industrial or commercial interests in what is primarily an agricultural state has made Sinaloa a relatively low priority for Mexico City, especially as drug-related violence has grown in more populated cities along the U.S. border. Drug-trafficking activity in the state includes marijuana cultivation in the highlands, money laundering and its supporting systems and activities in the cities, maritime trafficking along the coast, and aerial trafficking from remote airstrips around the state.
Federal Reinforcements For Sinaloa
Sinaloa's criminal situation represents a unique challenge for the Mexican federal government, which this past week sent more than 1,000 military and federal police forces to the state. The reinforcements probably will assist in the ongoing security operation there. If past deployments are any guide, the incoming troops will be deployed to the joint operating bases that stretch along the north-south federal highway in cities such as Mazatlan, Navolato, Culiacan and Los Mochis. From these bases, the troops mount patrols in the remote mountains of the state, conduct public security operations in the cities, establish highway checkpoints and respond to violent incidents as they occur.
Of course, it is too early to predict how much of an impact the latest deployment will have on the security situation in Sinaloa. Previous operations of similar size in the state have made little headway over the past year, and there is little reason to believe this one will be any different. For one, the reinforcements might initially be more preoccupied with their own safety. A spokesman told news media that one of the motivations for the reinforcements involved an increase in attacks on police and soldiers in Sinaloa, including a grenade attack this past week on an army barracks in Navolato. Several days later, at least 30 armed men opened fire on a police building in Guasave. Ultimately, a spike in violence in higher-priority regions of the country could quickly lead to a drawdown of forces in Sinaloa, leaving the state back where it started.
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