Afghanistan: The Last Straw

The Taliban have never been all that popular in the areas they controlled, but they have had fear and religion behind them. It has worked well in the past, but the use of terrorism to keep the supporters inline has really been backfiring. I think that they will fail unless they change their tactics soon. Unless Obama wants to give them the aid they need to make the comeback that his predecessor has almost ended. What a pity that would be.

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20081106.aspx

The Taliban are very unpopular out in the countryside. While the drug gangs bring bribes, jobs and guys who have money to spend, the Taliban bring paranoia, persecution and murder. About twenty Afghans a week are being murdered, as suspected police informants, by the Taliban. The Taliban demand that villagers pay "taxes" to support the them, and adhere to strict lifestyle rules (no music or videos, or trimmed beards or schools for girls and so on). These rules are unpopular with most rural Afghans, and it has gotten to the point where many tribes are forming self-defense militias to try and keep the Taliban out. The Pakistani Pushtun tribes are reporting that this can work, but only if the Taliban are weakened to the point where they cannot call in enough reinforcements to trash the militia.

In Pakistan, the army has been aggressively going after the villages that the Taliban come from, arresting Taliban leaders and killing any armed men who do not surrender. This allows the pro-government militias to burn down the homes of known Taliban, and drive the families away. This has forced many pro-Taliban families to back away from Islamic radicalism. This has also caused a growing split between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. The Afghan branch has lots of cash from the drug gangs, and their "taxes", while the Pakistan branch is basically broke. The Pakistani Taliban are in a fight for survival, and angry that they are not getting more support from the Afghan Taliban. After all, the Pakistani Taliban sheltered their Afghan brothers for years after 2001. The Afghan Taliban are feeling cocky, and don't seem to care if the Pakistani Taliban are wiped out. It's all that drug money, and maybe some of the drugs, talking.